Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8E 0x8e26…cfc4 sports 189 markets active 5h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$160 (-3%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate56%99W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$16
tech 19% −$128
crypto 12% +$15
politics 12% −$2
world 5% −$31
other 5% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% -11.6%
≤30d 58 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 55% +1.1%
≤90d 58 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 55% +1.1%
all 176 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 30% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 30% -12.1%
10% -15.1% 27% -20.5%
15% -23.3% 25% -28.2%
20% -30.8% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses99 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)176 / 189
History coverage250d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +216%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$6 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $2 +$2 +119%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $2 +$2 +119%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2 +$1 +73%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 60¢ $1 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $5 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.69 · official $13.69 (match) · 361 history records