Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e24…682f
sports · 21 markets active 0h ago
5.5score
+$16 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 9 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 45¢ 88¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+97%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Under 35¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +262%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$16 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$10
sports 32% −$3
crypto 21% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 BUY Under 35¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 16h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 28¢ $2 25h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 26h
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 36h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $4 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $4 40h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 40h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 40h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 2d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $12 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +35.0% +22.2% 58% 58% +25.0%
≤30d 12 +35.0% +22.2% 58% 58% +25.0%
≤90d 12 +35.0% +22.2% 58% 58% +25.0%
all 12 +35.0% +22.2% 58% 58% +25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.2% 58% +25.0%
10% +10.5% 58% +13.1%
15% -0.2% 58% +2.1%
20% -10.0% 50% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.32 · official $69.11 · 36 history records