Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e22…f73a world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
politics 16% −$3
other 11% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% +$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 60% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -3.1% -12.3% 29% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage274d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $44 −$4 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $190 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $57 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $68 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $1 $0 -45%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 07 $16 −$3 -21%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $2 $0 -13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $62 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 7h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $36 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $51 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $51 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $12 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $28 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $24 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $19 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $38 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $11 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $33 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $32 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $67 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $46 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $22 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $46 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $21 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.98 · official $61.98 (match) · 110 history records