Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e1f…bbd6 weather 1001 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+0%) realized +$161 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%922W / 71L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$20
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +0.1% -9.5% 88% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 384 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 993 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 1% -9.2%
all 993 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses922 / 71
Open positions8
Markets (closed)993 / 1001
History coverage89d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 993 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $508 $509 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$5 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $213 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $499 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $70 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $40 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $34 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL No 94¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 79¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.27 · official $661.27 (match) · 2545 history records