Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e1d…87e2 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$917 (-30%) realized −$917 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$582
7 days−$582
14 days−$582
30 days−$976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$570
other 27% +$77
sports 27% −$552
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -48.6% -53.5% 30% 30% -41.4%
≤30d 13 -60.5% -64.2% 23% 23% -52.6%
≤90d 17 -63.2% -66.7% 24% 24% -53.6%
all 33 -22.8% -30.1% 36% 36% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 36% -46.1%
10% -36.8% 27% -51.3%
15% -42.9% 27% -56.0%
20% -48.5% 21% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$64 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$917
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage338d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Canada 3 - Jun 19 $499 +$77 +15%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $229 −$228 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $139 −$72 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $127 −$100 -78%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $81 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $177 +$33 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $155 −$150 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 24 $202 −$198 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $192 −$94 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 09 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 18 $48 −$5 -10%
Solana Up or Down - August 26, 1AM ET Aug 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 12AM ET Aug 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Jul 18 $27 −$1 -3%
XRP Up or Down - July 18, 6PM ET Jul 18 $10 +$20 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 6PM ET Jul 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 18, 5PM ET Jul 18 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5PM ET Jul 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 5PM ET Jul 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 8PM ET Jul 18 $27 +$26 +96%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on July 18? Jul 18 $25 +$19 +75%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on July 18? Jul 17 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? Jul 17 $10 +$17 +170%
Solana Up or Down on July 17? Jul 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 17? Jul 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on July 16? Jul 16 $49 +$21 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Canada 3 - BUY 86¢ $499 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $229 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $67 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $139 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $36 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $77 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $155 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $81 31h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win BUY 3¢ $1 2d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 37¢ $202 25d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $93 25d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Thunder 48¢ $93 25d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $98 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $300.00 · 67 history records