Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e1c…a9a5
sports · 658 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,126 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,136 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,068
Realized−$1,136
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses301 / 370
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions228
Markets (closed)671 / 658
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day753.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 228 History 671 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,180
7 days−$1,136
14 days−$1,136
30 days−$1,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 95¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 72¢ 57¢ $36 $29 −$7 (-20%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 41¢ 38¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 90¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 96¢ 96¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 41¢ 42¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 31¢ 36¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 40¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 87¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Gibraltar (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 13 $4 −$4 -105%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-04-01? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
CA Boston River vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$193
other 30% −$177
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 17¢ $1 1m
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $1 3m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 10m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 39¢ $1 10m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $1 11m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 13m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 14m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 39¢ $3 14m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 39¢ $1 16m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 39¢ $3 16m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $12 16m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $2 17m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 17m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 17m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 18m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 22m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 22m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 23m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 24m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $1 29m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 30m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 30m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 30m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 31m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 32m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $1 32m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $3 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 37m
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $2 40m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $3 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 671 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 33% -31.9%
≤30d 671 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 33% -31.9%
≤90d 671 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 33% -31.9%
all 671 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 33% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover753.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 33% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 25% -38.4%
15% -37.1% 17% -44.3%
20% -43.2% 13% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.87 · official $1,067.52 (match) · 3500 history records