Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e17…9d3c sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,520 (-12%) realized −$10,217 · open −$303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,334per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$501est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7,119
14 days−$6,238
30 days−$10,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$10,345
world 22% +$847
other 17% −$835
tech 10% −$162
crypto 1% −$549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 47% -12.4%
≤30d 65 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 43% -15.0%
≤90d 65 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 43% -15.0%
all 65 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 43% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 43% -15.0%
10% -26.6% 37% -23.2%
15% -33.7% 25% -30.6%
20% -40.2% 17% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,497) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$628 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2,333
Realized−$10,217
Unrealized−$303
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,334
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2,339 $2,333 −$6 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 66¢ 0¢ $297 $0 −$297 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,553 −$2,521 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $8,577 −$5,916 -69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,399 +$995 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $142 +$80 +56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,405 −$39 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $553 −$549 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,013 +$510 +17%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,682 +$783 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,007 +$174 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,189 +$495 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,898 −$14 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,274 −$200 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $297 +$173 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,265 −$1,144 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $709 +$549 +77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1,063 −$259 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $502 −$394 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,000 +$129 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $268 −$264 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,011 +$253 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,007 +$290 +29%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $312 −$307 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $324 +$257 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $113 +$139 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $195 +$45 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $954 +$218 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$155 +303%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $260 +$75 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,640 −$683 -15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $33 +$153 +467%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4,443 +$459 +10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $512 +$18 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,497 +$361 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $496 −$64 -13%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $560 −$554 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $502 +$79 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,206 +$223 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,736 +$767 +44%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $240 +$128 +53%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $436 +$208 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $252 +$182 +72%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $995 −$984 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $253 −$250 -99%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 07 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,010 +$503 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,396 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 66¢ $300 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $299 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $525 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,553 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $469 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $2,086 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $8,577 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,120 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,399 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $1,366 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $142 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $148 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1,405 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $149 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $453 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $59 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,523 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 86¢ $3,465 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $3,013 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,181 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $2,682 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2,684 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $2,189 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1,381 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $203 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $1,012 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $565 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $506 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,332.91 · official $2,332.91 (match) · 134 history records