Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e17…0ede sports 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%20W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
other 25% −$4
politics 25% −$3
world 5% +$1
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 203 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses20 / 183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage173d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $137 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $134 +$1 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 8d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $48 16d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $5 16d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $43 16d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 28d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 28d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $53 36d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $53 37d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $55 108d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $55 108d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 94¢ $50 108d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 94¢ $50 108d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 108d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 108d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 108d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $49 108d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $51 108d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $51 108d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $47 108d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $47 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $52 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $52 108d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $43 108d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $43 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.92 · official $51.92 (match) · 749 history records