Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8e15…b101 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,287 (+14%) realized +$10,593 · open +$694
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%89W / 546L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,852
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 486 -96.1% -96.4% 1% 1% -97.8%
≤30d 495 -94.1% -94.7% 2% 2% -43.0%
≤90d 635 -76.5% -78.7% 14% 8% -24.5%
all 635 -76.5% -78.7% 14% 8% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.7% 8% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -80.7% 5% -31.7%
15% -82.6% 3% -38.3%
20% -84.3% 2% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -59% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$46 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$7,986
Realized+$10,593
Unrealized+$694
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses89 / 546
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)635 / 157
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$522
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,370 $2,394 +$24 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,474 $1,506 +$32 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 47¢ 76¢ $899 $1,444 +$546 (+61%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,185 $1,194 +$9 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $839 $848 +$9 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 94¢ 95¢ $152 $153 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $99 $114 +$15 (+15%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 93¢ 86¢ $97 $91 −$7 (-7%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $40 $89 +$48 (+120%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 1AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$39 -150%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 9PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$189 -197%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$83 -2203%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$20 -123%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $544 −$544 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 11AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$57 -179%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $323 −$323 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 1PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$19 -119%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$44 -39%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 7PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$41 -112%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$62 -123%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 98¢ $167 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 98¢ $167 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 97¢ $166 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 18h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 18h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 18h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 19h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 20h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 95¢ $162 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $163 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,986.33 · official $7,986.34 (match) · 3500 history records