Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8E 0x8e11…b4a4 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$106 (+27%) realized +$107 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+29.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+43.0%	+29.3%	100%	100%	+29.9%
≤30d	3	+43.0%	+29.3%	100%	100%	+29.9%
≤90d	3	+43.0%	+29.3%	100%	100%	+29.9%
all	3	+43.0%	+29.3%	100%	100%	+29.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+29.3%	100%	+29.9%
10%	+17.0%	100%	+17.5%
15%	+5.7%	67%	+6.1%
20%	-4.7%	33%	-4.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$157

Realized+$107

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$158	$157	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$102	+$58	+57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$82	+$20	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$55	+$26	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$160	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$102	8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$82	11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$82	11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$55	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.42 · official $157.42 (match) · 7 history records