Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8e0c…42f8 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+19%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +213% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +161% what you keep after slip
Net edge+161%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$16
sports 25% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+183.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +212.8% +183.0% 50% 50% +5.7%
≤30d 12 +212.8% +183.0% 50% 50% +5.7%
≤90d 12 +212.8% +183.0% 50% 50% +5.7%
all 12 +212.8% +183.0% 50% 50% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +183.0% 50% +5.7%
10% +155.9% 50% -4.4%
15% +131.2% 50% -13.7%
20% +108.5% 50% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +213% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +428% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$40 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$80 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$33 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$26 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$95 +1775%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026- Jun 17 $22 +$56 +253%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $58.71 · 20 history records