Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

8D 0x8dff…2916 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$21 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$116per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-30.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-23.1%	-30.5%	25%	25%	-47.7%
≤30d	4	-23.1%	-30.5%	25%	25%	-47.7%
≤90d	4	-23.1%	-30.5%	25%	25%	-47.7%
all	4	-23.1%	-30.5%	25%	25%	-47.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.5%	25%	-47.7%
10%	-37.1%	0%	-52.7%
15%	-43.2%	0%	-57.3%
20%	-48.8%	0%	-61.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$99 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.07 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$21

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$116

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$7	-15%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$404	−$254	-63%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$101	+$20	+20%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$102	−$36	-35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	61¢	$43	28m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	27¢	$148	40m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	30¢	$1	41m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	71¢	$303	1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	SELL Paper Rex	59¢	$67	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	90¢	$100	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	84¢	$1	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	83¢	$1	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	83¢	$101	5h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.51 · official $38.51 (match) · 14 history records