Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dfd…ae5b world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 23% $0
politics 16% $0
sports 10% −$12
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 20% -9.2%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -1.6% -11.0% 29% 1% -9.6%
all 83 -4.1% -13.2% 30% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage535d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $127 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $84 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $144 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $68 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $70 −$4 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $81 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 +$3 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $2 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.01 · official $34.01 (match) · 355 history records