Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8df8…a552 sports 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$228 (-2%) realized −$216 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%222W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$48
14 days+$77
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$1
crypto 18% −$192
other 7% −$86
world 2% +$3
politics 0% −$29
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +41.2% +27.8% 59% 59% -2.6%
≤30d 136 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -13.6%
≤90d 376 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 49% -13.3%
all 438 -3.8% -13.0% 51% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -12.6%
10% -21.3% 47% -21.0%
15% -28.9% 43% -28.6%
20% -35.9% 32% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses222 / 216
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions5
Markets (closed)438 / 448
History coverage199d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 75¢ 40¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-58%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Brunno Ferreira 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $21 −$21 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $26 +$15 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $27 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $39 −$39 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $36 +$23 +64%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $49 −$14 -28%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $63 +$21 +33%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $19 +$8 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$12 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $33 +$22 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$12 +108%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $27 +$14 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $4 +$32 +786%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $45 +$21 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$28 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 +$32 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $44 +$35 +80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$14 +93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$23 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$30 +99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$48 +122%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $55 −$37 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY 69¢ $18 25m
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Brunno Ferreira 9¢ $2 27m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 52¢ $21 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 96¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 60¢ $26 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main SELL Nazim Sadykhov 61¢ $26 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $27 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma SELL Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $27 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $28 2h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 49¢ $12 20h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 46¢ $8 20h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 66¢ $39 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $60 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $36 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 44¢ $35 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $49 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 27¢ $6 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 50¢ $56 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 30¢ $0 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 26¢ $30 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 75¢ $30 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $27 27h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $27 27h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 70¢ $19 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $17 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $25 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 39h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win BUY 51¢ $16 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 39h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $56 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $27.55 · 979 history records