Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8D 0x8df7…6d8a sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$476 (-19%) realized −$476 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$278
other 17% −$420
crypto 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.4% -46.1% 36% 36% -13.1%
≤30d 11 -40.4% -46.1% 36% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 11 -40.4% -46.1% 36% 36% -13.1%
all 13 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 38% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 38% -18.2%
10% -49.5% 31% -26.0%
15% -54.4% 31% -33.1%
20% -58.9% 8% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$127 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage220d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $505 +$239 +47%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$305 +153%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$109 +36%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $402 +$79 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $744 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $202 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $302 45h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $302 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $481 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $402 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 170d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 170d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 96¢ $505 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $200 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 36¢ $17 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 35¢ $129 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $100 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records