Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8df6…9785 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$95 (+2%) realized +$588 · open −$493
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$487
politics 22% +$175
economics 11% +$131
crypto 4% +$2
finance 2% −$77
world 1% −$2
sports 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.0% -4.1% 67% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 27 -20.1% -27.7% 48% 37% -0.5%
all 34 -23.3% -30.6% 47% 35% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 35% -1.6%
10% -37.3% 29% -11.0%
15% -43.3% 15% -19.6%
20% -48.9% 9% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$13 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized+$588
Unrealized−$493
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage157d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1,003 $625 −$378 (-38%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $287 $182 −$105 (-37%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+55%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-67%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $100 −$22 -22%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 29 $156 +$6 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $97 +$36 +37%
Bill Gates charged by June 30? May 19 $6 +$6 +95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed May 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? May 12 $10 +$31 +317%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $12 +$1 +6%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $596 +$155 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $230 +$10 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 13 $110 +$16 +15%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 02 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $704 +$180 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 01 $62 −$39 -62%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $200 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $71 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $74 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $94 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $94 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $110 14d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $63 14d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $166 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $166 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $64 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $64 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $93 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $60 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $58 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $44 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $93 26d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $98 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.17 · official $835.17 (match) · 504 history records