Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8dee…b748 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-3%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate97%125W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$132
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 9% -13.0%
≤30d 129 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 9% -12.9%
≤90d 129 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 9% -12.9%
all 129 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 9% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 9% -12.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -21.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -28.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$74 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses125 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage12d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 20, 11AM ET? No 99¢ 98¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 10AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 9AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 8AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 20, 7AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 20, 6AM ET? Jun 20 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 5AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 20, 4AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 3AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 2AM ET? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 1AM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 19, 11PM ET? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 19, 9PM ET? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 8PM ET? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 7PM ET? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 6PM ET? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 4PM ET? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 2PM ET? Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 1PM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 12PM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 11AM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 10AM ET? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 19, 9AM ET? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 19, 7AM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 5AM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 1AM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 12AM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 18, 11PM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 18, 9PM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 18, 8PM ET? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 18, 7PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 18, 5PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 18, 3PM ET? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 18, 1PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 18, 12PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 18, 11AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 18, 10AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 18, 9AM ET? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 18, 8AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 18, 7AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 18, 6AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 18, 5AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 18, 4AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 18, 3AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 18, 2AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 18, 1AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 17, 11PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 18, 12AM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 17, 10PM ET? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 17, 8PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 17, 7PM ET? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 20, 11AM ET? BUY No 99¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 10AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 9AM ET? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 20, 7AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 20, 6AM ET? BUY No 85¢ $44 4h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 20, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 20, 4AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 3AM ET? BUY No 99¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 2AM ET? BUY No 78¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 2AM ET? BUY No 79¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 2AM ET? BUY No 87¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 2AM ET? BUY No 89¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 20, 1AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 19, 11PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 19, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 8PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 6PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 17h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 4PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 2PM ET? BUY No 99¢ $27 21h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 1PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 12PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 11AM ET? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 10AM ET? BUY No 90¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 10AM ET? BUY No 88¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 19, 9AM ET? BUY No 85¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.62 · official $26.62 (match) · 350 history records