Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8dec…81db politics 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%67W / 27L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$977
7 days−$786
14 days−$786
30 days−$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$787
politics 23% −$486
other 16% −$10
sports 6% +$264
tech 3% −$127
culture 2% +$73
world 2% +$70
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +27.3% +15.2% 69% 46% -20.8%
≤30d 14 +28.8% +16.5% 71% 50% -20.4%
≤90d 14 +28.8% +16.5% 71% 50% -20.4%
all 94 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 37% -16.2%
10% -19.0% 26% -24.3%
15% -26.8% 16% -31.6%
20% -34.0% 9% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$108 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses67 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage577d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $127 −$119 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,213 −$1,213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $1,110 +$162 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $1,105 +$68 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$65 +598%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $504 +$61 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $355 +$96 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $538 +$327 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $278 +$53 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $226 +$15 +7%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa May 25 $50 +$23 +47%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 12 $500 +$225 +45%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jan 07 $50 +$3 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 07 $50 +$4 +9%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 07 $61 +$34 +56%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 07 $100 +$17 +17%
Suns vs. Warriors Dec 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 01 $110 +$16 +14%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 12 $350 +$27 +8%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 12 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during hi Nov 05 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/conce Nov 05 $100 −$4 -4%
Democratic sweep? Nov 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $200 +$8 +4%
UMass vs. Akron Nov 05 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Nov 05 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025? Nov 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession spe Nov 05 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times Nov 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
All New Orleans escapees captured by Friday? Jun 22 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 22 $100 +$20 +20%
US-China trade deal before June? May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Florida bans mRNA vaccine mandates in 2025? May 05 $50 −$48 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? May 05 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $300 +$100 +33%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 05 $50 −$16 -31%
Trump's face on paper money before July? Apr 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 17 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run before July? Apr 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 17 $150 +$32 +22%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Apr 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? Apr 17 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Corey Conners win The 2025 Masters? Apr 17 $300 +$14 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $504 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records