Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8dec…46e0 weather 1185 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,085 (+0%) realized +$4,087 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1161W / 12L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$779per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$499
14 days−$273
30 days+$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$1,560
finance 6% +$2,648
other 5% +$570
tech 3% +$139
politics 1% +$63
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 516 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1066 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 1173 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 38% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$118 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$6,231
Realized+$4,087
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1161 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1173 / 1185
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$779
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,718 $2,722 +$4 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $696 $697 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $620 $615 −$5 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $453 $454 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $359 $359 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $334 $333 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $289 $285 −$4 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $211 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $202 $202 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $201 $201 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? Up 98¢ 100¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $469 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $408 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $210 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,251 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $310 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $466 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $182 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $309 $0 +0%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $421 +$3 +1%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $153 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $315 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $3,924 +$214 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $145 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $285 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $294 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $265 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $405 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $265 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $526 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $221 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,965 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $441 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1,317 +$13 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $297 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $360 $0 +0%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $175 +$2 +1%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,193 +$13 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $708 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $159 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $752 +$95 +13%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$7 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $530 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 15? Jun 15 $267 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $419 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $742 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $883 +$4 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $620 20m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $289 21m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,942 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $313 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $696 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $463 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $211 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $80 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $70 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $202 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $334 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $201 8h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $453 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $359 9h
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $70 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $469 14h
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $114 14h
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $114 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $201 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $466 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $166 15h
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 99¢ $237 15h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $16 22h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $2,498 22h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $934 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 22h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 100¢ $65 23h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 99¢ $0 24h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 98¢ $195 24h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $216 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,230.85 · official $6,230.85 (match) · 3500 history records