Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8deb…7062 economics 105 markets active 7h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46,671 (+17%) realized +$46,620 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%89W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,581per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$12,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2,258
30 days+$2,751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 46% +$20,062
world 22% +$1,926
other 22% +$3,371
finance 6% +$56
politics 4% +$11,279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 32 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 3% -7.1%
≤90d 95 +27.9% +15.7% 94% 15% +3.3%
all 95 +27.9% +15.7% 94% 15% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.7% 15% +3.3%
10% +4.7% 14% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here -5.5% 13% -15.6%
20% -14.7% 8% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,940) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +52% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
27.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$139 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.83 per $1 lost it wins $53.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$12,130
Realized+$46,620
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses89 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)95 / 105
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$2,581
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 25 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 25 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $998 +$2 +0%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $5,846 +$15 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $4,992 +$154 +3%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 17 $11,526 +$327 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $12,027 +$373 +3%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Jun 17 $318 +$5 +2%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) Jun 17 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul) Jun 17 $864 +$13 +2%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $15,773 +$674 +4%
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $4,358 +$54 +1%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $17,623 +$578 +3%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $906 +$12 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $541 +$7 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1,761 +$30 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $280 +$10 +4%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $1,665 +$15 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $2,990 +$88 +3%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 11 $7,798 +$162 +2%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 08 $782 +$13 +2%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 07 $45 +$52 +115%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meetin Jun 07 $625 +$16 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 04 $1,489 +$18 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $2,165 +$40 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $4,448 +$79 +2%
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates in May? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? Jun 01 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? Jun 01 $582 +$6 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 30 $297 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? May 30 $445 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 30 $993 +$6 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? May 29 $477 +$30 +6%
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by May 29 $9 +$1 +6%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the M May 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $2,402 +$35 +2%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $1,187 +$6 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $1,153 +$12 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 27 $1,187 +$44 +4%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $2,940 +$141 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 20 $1,590 +$15 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,995 +$5 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15? May 15 $898 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 6h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 8h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 95¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 95¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 95¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 95¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $4 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $10 17h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $10 18h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $91 20h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $6 23h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $10 23h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $10 23h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $9 23h
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight BUY Yes 97¢ $14 27h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,504 4d
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4d
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 4d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? BUY No 99¢ $3 4d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? BUY No 99¢ $58 6d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $8 8d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $5 8d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $9 8d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,130.16 · official $12,130.16 (match) · 3500 history records