Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8D 0x8de6…2938 other 722 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 247d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,164 (-1%) realized −$13,408 · open +$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%687W / 10L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,012per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$41,516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$462
7 days−$108
14 days+$330
30 days+$1,855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$5,266
politics 26% +$3,514
crypto 13% +$979
sports 11% −$28,634
world 11% −$117
economics 6% +$3,604
weather 2% +$48
tech 1% +$129
culture 1% +$102
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 90% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 81 -0.5% -9.9% 96% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 212 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 0% -12.2%
all 697 +3.1% -6.7% 99% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 2% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -23.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -31.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$2,415) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$3,270 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$41,516
Realized−$13,408
Unrealized+$244
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses687 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions25
Markets (closed)697 / 722
History coverage248d ⚠
Avg bet$3,012
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15,658 $15,684 +$25 (+0%)
French election called by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,451 $5,567 +$116 (+2%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,389 $5,492 +$102 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,486 $4,498 +$11 (+0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,967 $2,969 +$1 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $2,212 $2,128 −$84 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,203 $1,203 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $972 $978 +$6 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $723 $728 +$5 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $454 $465 +$11 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $396 $396 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $283 $289 +$6 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $162 $230 +$68 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $85 $212 +$127 (+150%)
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $160 $106 −$54 (-33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $102 −$8 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $84 $56 −$27 (-33%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $99 $52 −$46 (-47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $53 $36 −$16 (-31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-21%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Jun 28 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? Jun 27 $745 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $658 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 25? Jun 25 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $1,333 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 24? Jun 24 $681 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? Jun 24 $490 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28,635 +$86 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $240 +$10 +4%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5,129 +$10 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,837 +$163 +2%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $321 +$15 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48,079 +$55 +0%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,886 +$114 +4%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $984 +$16 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28,999 +$35 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,190 +$9 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $22,133 +$168 +1%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $275 $0 +0%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $15,956 +$44 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,100 +$11 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,096 +$14 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $4,307 +$8 +0%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 14 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,389 +$29 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,755 −$22 -1%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $14,006 +$13 +0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $572 +$6 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $3,586 +$14 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $6,280 +$12 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $3,217 +$15 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $5,828 +$52 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,027 +$6 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $7,914 +$26 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $9,946 1h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $4,995 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,967 1h
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,997 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $396 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $32 22h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $255 22h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $745 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $38 41h
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $637 41h
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $609 3d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $222 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $490 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $681 4d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $1,333 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 4d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,515.55 · official $41,515.55 (match) · 3500 history records