Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8D 0x8de4…a68f sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$687 · open +$666

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$485per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$101est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$2,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-30.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-59.6%	-63.5%	40%	0%	-29.7%
≤30d	6	-38.4%	-44.3%	50%	17%	-24.7%
≤90d	7	-23.3%	-30.6%	57%	29%	-20.4%
all	7	-23.3%	-30.6%	57%	29%	-20.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.6%	29%	-20.4%
10%	-37.3%	29%	-28.0%
15%	-43.3%	29%	-34.9%
20%	-48.9%	29%	-41.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage

Net worth$2,019

Realized−$687

Unrealized+$666

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Est. fees paid−$101

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage31d

Avg bet$485

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	67¢	100¢	$1,353	$2,019	+$666 (+49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)	Jun 20	$6	$0	+1%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-100%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)	Jun 20	$11	−$11	-100%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$114	+$1	+1%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	May 26	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	May 20	$10	+$7	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	67¢	$1,367	19m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Taylor Fritz	60¢	$3,625	1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	36¢	$1,122	1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	39¢	$1,214	1h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5	BUY Over 2.5	99¢	$114	1h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)	BUY Cerundolo	99¢	$6	1h
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	44¢	$15	26d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	59¢	$10	26d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	31d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	BUY Avalanche	64¢	$10	31d
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)	BUY Jovic	48¢	$8	31d
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)	BUY Jovic	47¢	$2	31d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,018.98 · official $2,018.98 (match) · 19 history records