Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8de3…f0d4
sports · 128 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$9
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses35 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)117 / 128
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 11 History 117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 68¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 47¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 55¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Yes 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Yu-Hsiou Hsu 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner EDward Gaming $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jakub Mensik 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Alexander Wagner vs Alexandr Tiutchenko Jun 10 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +149%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 09 $1 $0 -16%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $1 $0 -21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 +$3 +250%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 -4%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $1 +$1 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$9
other 15% −$4
politics 10% −$1
economics 7% $0
world 7% −$1
finance 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 47m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $1 49m
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 68¢ $1 54m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 76¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $1 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $1 11h
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 44¢ $1 11h
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 11h
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 71¢ $1 23h
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $1 26h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 27h
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 50¢ $0 2d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL No 54¢ $1 2d
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.8% -19.3% 20% 15% -24.5%
≤30d 117 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 26% -18.6%
≤90d 117 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 26% -18.6%
all 117 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 26% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 26% -18.6%
10% -25.7% 25% -26.4%
15% -32.9% 21% -33.5%
20% -39.5% 19% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.88 · official $8.88 (match) · 250 history records