trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | $8,324 | $8,791 | +$467 (+6%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | No | 32¢ | 30¢ | $1,099 | $1,016 | −$82 (-8%) |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | Yes | 60¢ | 52¢ | $1,129 | $986 | −$143 (-13%) |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 93¢ | $685 | $872 | +$187 (+27%) |
| Will Uzbekistan win the World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $451 | $453 | +$2 (+0%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $413 | $416 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Abdallah Al Fakhori: 2+ goals | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $353 | $358 | +$5 (+2%) |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $337 | $336 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $318 | $317 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $318 | $317 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $318 | $317 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Ali Azaizeh: 3+ goals | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $286 | $291 | +$5 (+2%) |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $265 | $267 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $263 | $265 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Christoph Baumgartner: 2+ goals | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $254 | $257 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $239 | $240 | +$1 (+0%) |
| João Neves: 2+ goals | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $237 | $235 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Abdallah Al Fakhori: 1+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $218 | $219 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $214 | $214 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 58¢ | 56¢ | $217 | $206 | −$11 (-5%) |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $200 | $201 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Christoph Baumgartner: 3+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $191 | $192 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Abdallah Al Fakhori: 3+ goals | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $191 | $192 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $190 | $192 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Marc Pubill: 2+ goals | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $189 | $191 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? | Jun 14 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Will Tgr Haas have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu | Jun 14 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P | Jun 14 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Juninho Bacuna: 4+ shots | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Kenji Gorré: 2+ assists | Jun 14 | $17 | $0 | +3% |
| Brandley Kuwas: 2+ assists | Jun 14 | $28 | +$1 | +2% |
| Brandley Kuwas: 4+ shots | Jun 14 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Pascal Groß: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $69 | +$1 | +1% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Jonathan Tah: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Malick Thiaw: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Antonio Rüdiger: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $99 | +$4 | +4% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | Jun 14 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | +$1 | +4% |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $57 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will Leon Goretzka be in Germany's Starting 11? | Jun 14 | $297 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Waldemar Anton be in Germany's Starting 11? | Jun 14 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? | Jun 14 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? | Jun 14 | $105 | +$1 | +1% |
| Junya Itō: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| Takefusa Kubo: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $48 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| David Raum: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Angelo Stiller: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| NBA Finals: Any Player to Record a Triple-Double? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? | Jun 14 | $2,487 | +$81 | +3% |
| Will there be 5+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $1,400 | +$21 | +2% |
| Will there be 2+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $121 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will there be 3+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $381 | +$32 | +8% |
| Will there be 4+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $373 | +$11 | +3% |
| Will there be 6+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $532 | +$5 | +1% |
| Salih Özcan: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $85 | +$1 | +1% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Jackson Irvine: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $263 | +$6 | +2% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $102 | +$3 | +3% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $62 | +$3 | +5% |
| Cristian Volpato: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $59 | +$2 | +4% |
| Orkun Kökçü: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Ajdin Hrustic: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $93 | +$3 | +3% |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $112 | +$3 | +3% |
| Connor Metcalfe: 2+ goals | Jun 14 | $63 | +$2 | +4% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $113 | +$2 | +2% |
| Oğuz Aydın: 3+ goals | Jun 14 | $64 | +$1 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 303 | +3.2% | -6.7% | 96% | 5% | -2.3% |
| ≤30d | 515 | +11.5% | +0.9% | 92% | 11% | -5.2% |
| ≤90d | 548 | +20.5% | +9.0% | 93% | 14% | -4.4% |
| all | 548 | +20.5% | +9.0% | 93% | 14% | -4.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +9.0% | 14% | -4.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -1.4% | 10% | -13.6% |
| 15% | -11.0% | 8% | -21.9% |
| 20% | -19.7% | 6% | -29.6% |