Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8de1…7dd9 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%115W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$32
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% +$22
sports 23% +$9
crypto 6% +$2
other 5% +$2
tech 4% +$2
finance 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +0.9% -8.8% 100% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 115 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 115 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 115 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$6,013
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses115 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)115 / 122
History coverage16d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $769 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $317 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $778 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $516 +$1 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $640 +$1 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $943 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $515 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $855 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $999 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $477 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $132 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $178 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $160 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $880 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $119 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $149 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $850 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $21 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,013.18 · official $6,013.18 (match) · 349 history records