Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8de0…87a0
crypto · 186 markets active 66d ago
0.0score
−$478,469 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$478,184 · open −$165
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,421
Realized−$478,184
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses59 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage725d
Avg bet$6,364
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 185 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 51¢ $8,586 $8,421 −$165 (-2%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,557 $0 −$1,557 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? No 44¢ 0¢ $471 $0 −$471 (-100%)
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $4,481 $0 −$4,481 (-100%)
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? No 4¢ 0¢ $983 $0 −$983 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Inflation" while addressing the nation on December 17? No 13¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $105,000 on June 6? No 97¢ 0¢ $20,000 $0 −$20,000 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2,545 $0 −$2,545 (-100%)
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $80,845 $0 −$80,845 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $6,270 $0 −$6,270 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 25¢ 0¢ $32,826 $0 −$32,826 (-100%)
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2,760 $0 −$2,760 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on September 17? Down 20¢ 0¢ $2,435 $0 −$2,435 (-100%)
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? No 41¢ 0¢ $7,291 $0 −$7,291 (-100%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 20-26? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10,313 $0 −$10,313 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6 at 5 PM ET? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1,564 $0 −$1,564 (-100%)
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1,880 $0 −$1,880 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? No 29¢ 0¢ $3,478 $0 −$3,478 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5,053 $0 −$5,053 (-100%)
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $563 $0 −$563 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $38,861 −$38,861 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Apr 07 $858 +$242 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $7,625 +$2,820 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $43,262 +$3,974 +9%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $7,291 −$7,291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 15 $344 −$340 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 15 $28 +$326 +1150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 15 $585 −$285 -49%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 15 $260 −$260 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $19,984 +$5,243 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 05 $284 −$281 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 05 $129 +$155 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 05 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 05 $275 −$271 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 05 $466 +$328 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 05 $457 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 05 $91 +$66 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 05 $205 −$113 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 05 $48 −$48 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 05 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $335 −$335 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $32,827 −$32,826 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $3,080 −$3,080 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 07 $100,979 −$46,550 -46%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Jan 07 $387 +$1,609 +416%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $21,248 +$2,589 +12%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jan 07 $2,111 +$12,158 +576%
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 20 $198 +$125 +63%
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" while addressing the nation on Decembe Dec 20 $478 +$101 +21%
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 20 $302 +$393 +130%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" while addressing t Dec 20 $387 +$920 +238%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" while addressing the nation Dec 20 $932 +$1,138 +122%
Will Trump say "Golden Age" while addressing the nation on December 17 Dec 20 $898 +$1,415 +158%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18? Dec 20 $11,264 +$494 +4%
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" while addressing the nation on Dec 18 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 18 $3,478 −$3,478 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $616 −$616 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 1 Dec 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $3,264 −$3,264 -100%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" while addressing the nation on Dec Dec 18 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Trump say "Inflation" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Eighth War" while addressing the nation Dec 18 $281 −$281 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 31% −$77,357
other 21% −$118,098
world 19% −$70,241
economics 19% −$191,533
politics 8% −$2,531
tech 1% −$12,748
culture 1% −$7,291
sports 0% +$1,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 85¢ $3,269 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 84¢ $35,592 65d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 +50.2% +35.9% 42% 33% -35.9%
all 185 -4.1% -13.2% 32% 26% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 26% -47.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 24% -52.0%
15% -29.1% 21% -56.7%
20% -36.1% 18% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,421.17 · official $8,422.83 (match) · 3373 history records