Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8dde…2407 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-3%) realized −$28 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$392
14 days+$392
30 days+$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$161
sports 7% +$241
economics 5% −$131
world 2% −$51
politics 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +13.5% +2.7% 47% 40% +13.3%
≤30d 15 +13.5% +2.7% 47% 40% +13.3%
≤90d 15 +13.5% +2.7% 47% 40% +13.3%
all 37 -54.0% -58.4% 19% 16% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.4% 16% -13.2%
10% -62.4% 14% -21.5%
15% -66.0% 14% -29.1%
20% -69.3% 11% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$23 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage152d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $500 $449 −$51 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -90%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $61 −$8 -13%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 +$43 +14%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $451 +$17 +4%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $16 −$7 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $293 +$146 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$31 -61%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$133 +217%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$166 +325%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech? Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Iowa speech? Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Davos" or "World Economic Forum" during Iowa speech? Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 57¢ $53 25m
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $61 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $345 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $77 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $469 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $9 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $16 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $451 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 25h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 30h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 41h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $195 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $192 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $70 96d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.80 · official $448.80 (match) · 55 history records