Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dde…450d crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$13
other 12% $0
world 12% +$3
politics 5% −$1
sports 3% −$2
culture 3% +$1
finance 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -60.3% -64.0% 0% 0% -64.0%
≤30d 20 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 40% -17.4%
≤90d 36 -28.3% -35.2% 39% 31% -28.7%
all 51 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 37% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 37% -17.5%
10% -26.4% 27% -25.4%
15% -33.5% 20% -32.6%
20% -40.0% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +27%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 17 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 17 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 17 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 11 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $2 +$4 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 20? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Mar 02 $4 $0 -7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $1 +$3 +285%
US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Feb 25 $1 $0 +9%
Will "Good" be said 20+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Feb 25 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$1 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 11d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.29 · official $3.29 (match) · 116 history records