Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8ddd…2868 crypto 1053 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$525 (+2%) realized +$540 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate83%876W / 176L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day85.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$162
14 days+$143
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -3.0% -12.3% 80% 78% -12.2%
≤30d 854 +1.1% -8.5% 83% 81% -8.9%
≤90d 1052 +1.5% -8.1% 83% 81% -8.6%
all 1052 +1.5% -8.1% 83% 81% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 81% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 8% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$540
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses876 / 176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1052 / 1053
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day85.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1052 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 88¢ 50¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$19 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$26 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$6 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$21 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$27 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$30 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$6 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$20 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$20 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$28 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$18 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $34 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 3500 history records