Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8ddc…9c0f
sports · 786 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$7,432 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,705 · open +$273
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,208
Realized−$7,705
Unrealized+$273
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses347 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,938
Open positions10
Markets (closed)776 / 786
History coverage103d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 10 History 776 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,475
7 days+$1,516
14 days−$1,351
30 days−$6,927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 51¢ $1,363 $1,390 +$27 (+2%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) KT Rolster 22¢ 36¢ $396 $657 +$262 (+66%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 63¢ 66¢ $349 $363 +$14 (+4%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) KT Rolster 52¢ 44¢ $295 $251 −$44 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 42¢ 42¢ $245 $242 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 26¢ 26¢ $144 $141 −$3 (-2%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) G2 Esports 55¢ 56¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 22¢ 24¢ $55 $60 +$6 (+10%)
First Blood in Game 1? KT Rolster 40¢ 100¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+149%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Toronto KOI 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Yellow Submarine 53¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Phantom 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Eternal Fire 53¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5) 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Alliance 37¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Kiwoom DRX 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Rival Esports vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Rival Esports 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner OpTic Texas 55¢ 0¢ $1,047 $0 −$1,047 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 0¢ $319 $0 −$319 (-100%)
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) PlayTime 47¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Major 2 Playoffs FaZe Vegas 28¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) G2 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Ergi Kirkin 38¢ 0¢ $312 $0 −$312 (-100%)
DEL: EHC Red Bull Muenchen vs. ERC Ingolstadt ERC Ingolstadt 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$402 +874%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $285 +$124 +44%
Game Handicap: MODUS (-1.5) vs 1p2m (+1.5) Jun 12 $19 +$10 +51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,064 −$1,053 -99%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $462 −$437 -95%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? Jun 12 $26 +$25 +97%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $80 −$78 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $277 −$274 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $27 +$26 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,686 −$1,279 -76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $177 −$174 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $85 −$84 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $138 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $97 −$96 -99%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,495 +$510 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $114 −$114 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $506 +$242 +48%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+1.5) Jun 11 $61 +$45 +73%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $96 +$33 +34%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $135 +$148 +109%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $425 +$447 +105%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $359 +$196 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $607 −$599 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $177 −$174 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $177 −$174 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $99 +$101 +101%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $9 +$21 +226%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Game Handicap: EVOS (-1.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+1.5) Jun 10 $99 +$64 +65%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $73 +$30 +42%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $111 +$112 +101%
Game Handicap: MODUS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 10 $85 −$83 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $79 +$149 +188%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $244 −$240 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $81 +$33 +41%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Verdant (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $147 −$145 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $41 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $8 +$20 +262%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $31 +$27 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$9,748
other 6% +$2,316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 26¢ $37 27m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 26¢ $110 32m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $250 48m
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $293 1h
First Blood in Game 1? BUY KT Rolster 40¢ $8 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $110 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $540 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $303 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $540 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 61¢ $10 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $93 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $167 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $93 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 22¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 22¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 22¢ $14 3h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $10 5h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 23¢ $15 5h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $39 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 15h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 65¢ $7 15h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 64¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 50¢ $7 15h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 66¢ $610 18h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 66¢ $433 18h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 66¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 36¢ $80 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 48% -2.6%
≤30d 209 -12.6% -20.9% 41% 40% -20.0%
≤90d 655 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 43% -12.5%
all 776 -5.9% -14.9% 45% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 43% -13.1%
10% -23.0% 41% -21.4%
15% -30.5% 38% -29.0%
20% -37.3% 32% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,208.42 · official $3,208.44 (match) · 2208 history records