Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8ddb…6a89 weather 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-5%) realized −$58 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%75W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$56
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$87
other 14% −$14
sports 13% +$24
crypto 1% +$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +5.3% -4.7% 42% 41% -4.1%
≤30d 188 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 38% -13.0%
≤90d 188 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 38% -13.0%
all 188 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 38% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 36% -21.3%
15% -27.8% 35% -28.9%
20% -34.9% 30% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses75 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)188 / 198
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 84¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$10 +203%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 +$11 +276%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 +$9 +78%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $6 +$10 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $9 +$6 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$6 +191%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$8 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$9 +128%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$10 +116%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$8 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$6 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$5 -34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$11 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$11 +158%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $60 +$11 +18%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $78 +$22 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$6 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$8 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 −$5 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$15 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$11 +206%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $45 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $4 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 36¢ $6 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? SELL Yes 71¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 78¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.61 · official $112.61 (match) · 348 history records