Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dda…3b3f crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$87 (+29%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-71.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -68.1% -71.1% 6% 6% -75.6%
≤30d 16 -68.1% -71.1% 6% 6% -75.6%
≤90d 16 -68.1% -71.1% 6% 6% -75.6%
all 16 -68.1% -71.1% 6% 6% -75.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.1% 6% -75.6%
10% -73.9% 6% -77.9%
15% -76.4% 6% -80.0%
20% -78.7% 6% -82.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$65 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $54 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$9 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records