Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd8…9a1c sports 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (349 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$20,712 (+33%) realized +$20,396 · open +$316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%138W / 413L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day348.9pace
Fees−$468est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$15,557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,898
other 39% +$200
world 2% +$344
crypto 1% +$103
culture 0% −$68
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (349 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 516 +19.6% +8.2% 23% 20% -28.0%
≤30d 551 +21.2% +9.6% 25% 22% -19.8%
≤90d 551 +21.2% +9.6% 25% 22% -19.8%
all 551 +21.2% +9.6% 25% 22% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover348.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 22% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.9% 19% -27.5%
15% -10.4% 17% -34.5%
20% -19.2% 15% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$41 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$15,557
Realized+$20,396
Unrealized+$316
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses138 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions125
Markets (closed)551 / 303
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$209
Trades / day348.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 125 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 62¢ 60¢ $3,357 $3,273 −$85 (-3%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $1,308 $1,496 +$188 (+14%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 36¢ 40¢ $708 $791 +$83 (+12%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 86¢ 89¢ $642 $667 +$25 (+4%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 48¢ $607 $540 −$67 (-11%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 51¢ $457 $496 +$39 (+9%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 36¢ 32¢ $490 $431 −$59 (-12%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $347 $402 +$55 (+16%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 60¢ 68¢ $344 $394 +$50 (+15%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 62¢ $321 $371 +$50 (+16%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles 35¢ 50¢ $215 $303 +$88 (+41%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $291 $299 +$8 (+3%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $106 $291 +$185 (+174%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 78¢ $306 $285 −$22 (-7%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 94¢ $228 $250 +$22 (+10%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 68¢ $177 $207 +$30 (+17%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 56¢ 57¢ $202 $206 +$4 (+2%)
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 33¢ 15¢ $432 $196 −$236 (-55%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $187 $170 −$17 (-9%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $163 $170 +$7 (+4%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $161 $165 +$3 (+2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 12¢ $204 $163 −$41 (-20%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 34¢ $132 $162 +$30 (+23%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $151 $156 +$5 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $154 $151 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 374 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 21 $13 +$25 +192%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 21 $0 +$18 +5412%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $69 −$68 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in Jun 21 $23 −$21 -92%
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Houston Dash win on 2026-05-20? Jun 21 $60 −$80 -133%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-24? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will FK Teplice win on 2026-05-12? Jun 21 $9 +$5 +48%
Will CA Lanús vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IK Start vs. Tromsø IL end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 21 $0 +$21 +23296%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 21 $0 +$18 +229424%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-02? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Ulsan HD FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Banfield win on 2026-03-06? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -96%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? Jun 21 $41 −$26 -64%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-02? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Moreirense FC vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AD Pasto win on 2026-05-01? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-10? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 21 $147 −$147 -100%
Will CA Unión vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? Jun 21 $74 −$31 -41%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-13? Jun 21 $40 −$32 -79%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Huddersfield Town AFC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: HMBLE vs GMBLERS ESPORTS - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $0 +$2 +2234%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $54 −$49 -90%
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 21 $14 −$12 -82%
Will Cusco FC vs. CD Los Chankas end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $0 −$16 -5122%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 21 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 21 $131 −$34 -26%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-09? Jun 21 $113 −$97 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 36¢ $40 15m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 32m
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 54¢ $48 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 66¢ $19 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 66¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 68¢ $29 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 64¢ $64 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 68¢ $68 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 17¢ $3 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 13¢ $13 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 15¢ $31 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 13¢ $27 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 15¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 15¢ $31 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 14¢ $6 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 13¢ $21 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 13¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 78¢ $39 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 45¢ $22 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 55¢ $6 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 54¢ $6 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 54¢ $18 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 54¢ $3 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 56¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 47¢ $7 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 81¢ $81 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 84¢ $27 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 8¢ $16 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 8¢ $16 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 13¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,556.92 · official $15,564.97 (match) · 3500 history records