Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd5…8229 politics 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%5W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$5
sports 22% −$3
other 21% −$3
crypto 3% −$2
culture 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 71 -16.1% -24.1% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -31.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -38.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -44.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses5 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage274d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $69 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $68 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $76 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $145 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 13 $1 $0 -50%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $233 −$1 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $73 $0 -0%
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 05 $1 $0 -50%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $1 $0 -25%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $78 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -83%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $1 $0 -50%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 32h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 16d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 20d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No $1 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 107d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 115d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 133d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 134d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 137d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 141d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 144d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 145d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 146d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 147d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $70 148d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $70 148d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 149d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 150d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY No $1 151d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 151d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 152d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 153d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $70 153d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 154d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $70 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 275 history records