Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8dd5…2179 crypto 60 markets active 9h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%54W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$16
other 18% +$30
tech 14% +$1
sports 7% −$77
economics 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$27
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 57 +2.4% -7.3% 95% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -16.2% 5% -18.5%
15% -24.3% 5% -26.4%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$47 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses54 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage535d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $384 $384 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $383 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 09 $372 +$1 +0%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $366 +$1 +0%
Will "Debi Tirar Mas Fotos" by Bad Bunny be the Billboard 200 #1 album Mar 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Democrat Party (DP) finish in second place by number of seats in Mar 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026? Mar 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $400 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 09 $414 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential el Jan 27 $3 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 08 $401 +$3 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November? Dec 12 $402 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Nov 28 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Ocean Zotique win the 2025 Atlanta mayoral election? Nov 11 $2 $0 +0%
John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31? Nov 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 11 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 13? Oct 21 $400 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? Oct 13 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 13 $400 +$4 +1%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31? Sep 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 03 $393 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 06 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $25 $0 +2%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 06 $350 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 14 $413 +$2 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 09 $73 $0 +1%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 09 $83 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 09 $213 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 13 $370 +$1 +0%
Kings vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz Mar 20 $62 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $7 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $384 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $383 39d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 49d
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $372 72d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 83d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $18 94d
Will "Debi Tirar Mas Fotos" by Bad Bunny be the Billboard 200 #1 album BUY No 100¢ $4 98d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $366 98d
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 128d
Will Democrat Party (DP) finish in second place by number of seats in BUY No 100¢ $5 128d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 128d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $102 141d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? SELL No 100¢ $103 141d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $414 160d
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential el BUY No 99¢ $3 160d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $401 187d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $4 187d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $402 201d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? SELL No 100¢ $401 201d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 218d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $14 218d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $400 218d
Will Ocean Zotique win the 2025 Atlanta mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $2 239d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $404 239d
John Thune out as Senate Majority leader by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.78 · official $394.78 (match) · 121 history records