Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd3…c142 crypto 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,343 (-4%) realized −$1,361 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate82%591W / 134L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day89.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days−$1,833
14 days−$1,831
30 days−$1,756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$128
sports 33% −$1,790
other 16% +$145
world 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -25.8% -32.8% 57% 20% -19.1%
≤30d 605 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 25% -14.8%
≤90d 725 -2.0% -11.3% 82% 22% -14.0%
all 725 -2.0% -11.3% 82% 22% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 22% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 7% -22.3%
15% -27.5% 3% -29.8%
20% -34.7% 2% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$30 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized−$1,361
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses591 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions7
Markets (closed)725 / 732
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day89.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 98¢ 98¢ $293 $294 +$1 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 94¢ 96¢ $188 $193 +$5 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 88¢ $95 $103 +$8 (+8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 66¢ $63 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 71¢ 76¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 72¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $268 +$15 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $644 +$56 +9%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $209 +$21 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $302 −$161 -53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $46 +$4 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,060 +$90 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $139 +$9 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $950 +$50 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $146 +$8 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$4 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 −$31 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$12 -21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $107 +$5 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $146 +$5 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $968 +$9 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $539 +$61 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $77 +$33 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $455 +$45 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 −$7 -5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $170 +$30 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 +$38 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $181 +$3 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 +$18 +143%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $91 +$2 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,053 +$67 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 +$19 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 +$9 +41%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $24 −$3 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $465 +$35 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $589 +$60 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $47 +$31 +66%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 +$8 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $350 +$28 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 +$15 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $92 0m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $22 15m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $18 15m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $36 24m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $196 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $13 41m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $88 44m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $95 50m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $64 57m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $93 57m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $165 58m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $103 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $186 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $127 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $63 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $285 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $90 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $25 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 50¢ $50 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $0 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $16 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $0 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $25 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $26 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $13 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $2 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $115 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.06 · official $783.06 (match) · 3500 history records