Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd2…af92 politics 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$3
sports 22% −$3
other 19% −$2
world 3% +$1
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -10.1% -18.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 61 -6.1% -15.0% 11% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage232d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1 $0 -26%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $97 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $1 $0 -25%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $1 $0 -50%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $194 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 21 $1 $0 -41%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 31 $99 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $1 $0 +25%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $103 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $205 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 30h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $97 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $95 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 12d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 18d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 36d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 103d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 103d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 109d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 109d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 111d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 111d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 113d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 115d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.68 · official $2.68 (match) · 307 history records