Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd2…e2e8 crypto 747 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%468W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day128.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$16
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 684 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 66% -10.8%
≤30d 745 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 61% -12.0%
≤90d 745 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 61% -12.0%
all 745 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 61% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 61% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 57% -20.4%
15% -28.8% 46% -28.1%
20% -35.8% 12% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses468 / 277
Open positions1
Markets (closed)745 / 747
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day128.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 80¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $1.11 (match) · 2065 history records