Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd1…bf74 other 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-10%) realized −$236 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%63W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$163
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$162
other 33% −$53
sports 30% −$115
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -26.1% -33.1% 21% 21% -20.3%
≤30d 133 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 24% -16.0%
≤90d 220 -22.9% -30.3% 29% 25% -20.6%
all 220 -22.9% -30.3% 29% 25% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 25% -20.6%
10% -36.9% 25% -28.2%
15% -43.0% 21% -35.2%
20% -48.6% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses63 / 157
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)220 / 229
History coverage81d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Yes 10¢ 65¢ $5 $32 +$28 (+550%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $27 $1 −$26 (-96%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -32%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $21 +$48 +226%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $17 +$5 +29%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -32%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$6 -30%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +67%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 2 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 2 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $5 +$68 +1331%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1m
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 17m
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 22m
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 22m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 3h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 11h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.71 · official $74.40 · 580 history records