Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd1…c7d2 crypto 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,254 (-7%) realized −$1,254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%128W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$856
14 days−$855
30 days−$1,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,878
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -13.5% -21.8% 57% 50% -29.5%
≤30d 209 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 56% -18.8%
≤90d 209 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 56% -18.8%
all 209 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 56% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 56% -18.8%
10% -22.5% 48% -26.6%
15% -30.0% 39% -33.7%
20% -36.9% 29% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$100 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses128 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage22d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $71 −$47 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$33 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$21 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$16 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$44 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$28 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$36 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$20 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$27 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$38 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $36 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $36 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $36 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $35 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $28 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records