Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dcf…e807 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+13%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% -4.6%
≤30d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% -4.6%
≤90d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% -4.6%
all 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 38% -4.6%
10% -22.0% 38% -13.7%
15% -29.5% 25% -22.1%
20% -36.4% 12% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? No 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Yes 40¢ 31¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $22 −$10 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +48%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 16 $22 +$14 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 16¢ $22 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 14¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 12¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 31¢ $22 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 35¢ $22 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 20¢ $22 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.50 · official $40.50 (match) · 19 history records