Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8dcf…5668 other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,757 (-21%) realized −$1,160 · open −$1,597
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$5,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$2
14 days−$27
30 days+$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$633
world 13% +$14
sports 12% −$73
politics 12% −$736
economics 5% +$13
crypto 0% −$41
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.3% -14.4% 48% 45% -9.7%
≤30d 52 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 46% +6.4%
≤90d 58 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 43% -6.4%
all 58 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 43% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 43% -6.4%
10% -25.9% 28% -15.3%
15% -33.1% 19% -23.5%
20% -39.7% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$5,788
Realized−$1,160
Unrealized−$1,597
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions38
Markets (closed)58 / 96
History coverage88d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,251 +$251 (+25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $622 $635 +$13 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $587 $603 +$16 (+3%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 41¢ 84¢ $245 $504 +$259 (+106%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $457 $476 +$20 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 39¢ 49¢ $169 $214 +$45 (+27%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 12¢ $904 $184 −$720 (-80%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 78¢ 96¢ $78 $96 +$18 (+22%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $97 $93 −$4 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $92 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 81¢ 64¢ $109 $87 −$22 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $57 $70 +$13 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $34 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $26 $31 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$11 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +276%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $83 +$10 +12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -77%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 +$16 +21%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$16 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $64 +$20 +32%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 +$24 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 −$75 -60%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 −$29 -40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +64%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $126 +$34 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $93 +$16 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $43 −$41 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 07 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $10 −$1 -14%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $101 −$65 -64%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $550 +$256 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$30 +291%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $10 +$3 +26%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $1 $0 +34%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 23 $550 +$279 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $42 5m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $42 7m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $67 30m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $4 35m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $10 49m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $2 51m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $80 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $42 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $5 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $8 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $10 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 17h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $10 17h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $51 17h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $14 17h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 17h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $24 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,788.18 · official $5,787.68 (match) · 530 history records