Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dca…64e9 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$717 (-22%) realized −$718 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$412
14 days−$412
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$323
sports 42% −$272
other 9% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -39.3% -45.0% 16% 16% -32.6%
≤30d 38 -39.3% -45.0% 16% 16% -32.6%
≤90d 64 -32.4% -38.9% 23% 23% -29.8%
all 64 -32.4% -38.9% 23% 23% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 23% -29.8%
10% -44.7% 23% -36.5%
15% -50.1% 22% -42.7%
20% -55.0% 22% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$38 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$718
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 49
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage59d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $22 $26 +$3 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+62%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $62 +$37 +61%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$59 +194%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 +$19 +130%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$31 -87%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$9 -54%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $113 −$49 -44%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$89 +864%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $270 +$314 +116%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $123 −$1 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $375 −$375 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 20 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 20 $22 +$50 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 20 $75 −$47 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 20 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 20 $225 −$220 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 20 $200 −$191 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 20 $114 +$75 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$18 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 20 $114 +$177 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 20 $60 −$31 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 20 $92 +$75 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $32 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $20 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $14 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $16 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 12h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 22h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $46 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $45 26h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.36 · official $75.96 · 300 history records