Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8dc5…c988 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,748 (+7%) realized +$3,720 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%34W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,135per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,007
7 days+$2,007
14 days+$1,655
30 days+$1,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,698
other 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +156.4% +132.0% 100% 100% +132.0%
≤30d 6 +12.9% +2.1% 67% 67% +12.8%
≤90d 11 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 55% -42.7%
all 46 +22.0% +10.4% 74% 74% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 74% -2.8%
10% -0.2% 72% -12.1%
15% -9.8% 63% -20.6%
20% -18.7% 50% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$593 vs −$1,369 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$3,310
Realized+$3,720
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses34 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,135
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 60¢ $3,283 $3,311 +$28 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,283 +$2,007 +156%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2,024 +$276 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 12 $740 −$740 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $140 +$55 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $84 +$56 +67%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Jun 04 $484 −$484 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 30 $486 −$479 -99%
Miami Open: Marin Cilic vs Alexander Zverev Mar 30 $238 −$238 -100%
Miami Open: Quentin Halys vs Kamil Majchrzak Mar 30 $4,983 −$4,983 -100%
Miami Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Alex Michelsen Mar 24 $296 +$190 +64%
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Raphael Collignon Mar 23 $484 +$218 +45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 22 $832 +$860 +103%
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se Mar 21 $212 +$83 +39%
Zadar: Matej Dodig vs Stefano Travaglia Mar 21 $734 +$466 +64%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 21 $2,870 −$2,870 -100%
Zadar: Lukas Neumayer vs Arthur Gea Mar 20 $670 +$377 +56%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution S Mar 20 $267 +$150 +56%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $1,850 +$1,234 +67%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 16 $59 −$59 -100%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 16 $599 −$599 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 16 $3,267 −$3,197 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 16 $371 +$247 +67%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Mar 16 $2,789 +$1,624 +58%
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 15 $2,949 +$1,205 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $208 +$163 +79%
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 13 $1,926 +$1,231 +64%
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud Mar 10 $354 +$227 +64%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 09 $1,385 +$1,065 +77%
UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Mar 08 $359 +$667 +186%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $1,589 +$1,275 +80%
BNP Paribas Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Jennifer Brady Mar 06 $325 +$167 +52%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $1,875 +$496 +26%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Nikola Bartunkova Mar 05 $165 −$165 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Alexei Popyrin Mar 05 $1,103 +$781 +71%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Mar 03 $520 +$748 +144%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 08 $596 −$596 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 08 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
Magic vs. Thunder Feb 04 $1,070 +$376 +35%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 03 $749 +$321 +43%
Lakers vs. Knicks Feb 02 $479 +$270 +56%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 24 $1,513 +$504 +33%
Nuggets vs. Wizards Jan 23 $1,029 +$484 +47%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jan 22 $474 +$142 +30%
Raptors vs. Kings Jan 22 $2,339 +$1,374 +59%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 20 $459 +$236 +52%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $767 +$578 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $227 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $176 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $119 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $327 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $246 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $159 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $252 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $299 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $233 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $287 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $358 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $185 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $513 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $585 11h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $264 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $880 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $880 8d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $94 10d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $48 10d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $597 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,310.50 · official $3,310.50 (match) · 398 history records