Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dbc…d388 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$102 (+3%) realized +$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$0
14 days+$100
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$97
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 52 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 27% -6.6%
≤90d 52 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 27% -6.6%
all 52 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 27% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 27% -6.6%
10% -22.5% 15% -15.5%
15% -30.0% 6% -23.7%
20% -36.8% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage17d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $852 −$12 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $172 +$11 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $173 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $171 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $171 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $156 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $153 +$3 +2%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $152 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $152 +$19 +12%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $29 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $197 +$28 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$11 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $46 +$4 +9%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $8 −$2 -30%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $91 +$9 +10%
Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 04 $7 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $48 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $15 −$3 -18%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $23 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 +$4 +14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $4 −$1 -13%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $31 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +36%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $10 −$1 -9%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$6 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $287 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 97¢ $278 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 97¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 97¢ $277 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 96¢ $275 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 75¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 82¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 83¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 85¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 83¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 81¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $181 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $172 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 92¢ $172 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 92¢ $173 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $173 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 99¢ $171 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 97¢ $172 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $171 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR 99¢ $172 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR 90¢ $156 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $156 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 98¢ $153 12d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 77¢ $154 12d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $152 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $152 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 91¢ $51 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 83¢ $50 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 83¢ $30 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records