Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dbb…b0dd crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-11%) realized −$20 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$57
other 32% +$16
sports 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -19.5% -27.2% 47% 40% -17.7%
≤30d 45 -19.5% -27.2% 47% 40% -17.7%
≤90d 45 -19.5% -27.2% 47% 40% -17.7%
all 45 -19.5% -27.2% 47% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 40% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 31% -25.6%
15% -40.5% 24% -32.8%
20% -46.3% 18% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +89%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$16 +159%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$21 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$14 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 0m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $12 16m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 27m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $7 48m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 48m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 53m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 55m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 57m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.09 (match) · 132 history records