Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8D 0x8dba…1f27 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,377 (-1%) realized −$1,379 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,342per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$24
30 days−$818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$881
politics 33% −$66
sports 22% −$458
world 2% −$3
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -7.7% -16.5% 13% 7% -11.9%
≤90d 78 -5.2% -14.2% 8% 4% -11.0%
all 137 +5.5% -4.6% 23% 16% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 16% -10.2%
10% -13.7% 16% -18.8%
15% -22.0% 13% -26.6%
20% -29.7% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,691) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$28 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized−$1,379
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,342
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $490 $490 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $279 $281 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $341 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,203 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,240 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,469 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,230 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $839 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $866 −$1 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $56 +$23 +42%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $859 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $61 +$18 +29%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $841 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,134 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 27 $732 −$732 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $716 −$1 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $1,253 −$1,253 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,754 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,826 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $3,027 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $3,158 −$3 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $3,359 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,692 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3,161 −$3 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4,192 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $490 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $340 18h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $341 20h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $477 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $477 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $553 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $554 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $538 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $539 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $492 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $493 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $589 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $590 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $555 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $556 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $627 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $279 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $903 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $904 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $802 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $803 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $888 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $889 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $915 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $917 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $842 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $843 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.43 · official $771.43 (match) · 477 history records