Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8db8…c3f0
politics · 268 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses66 / 163
Open positions39
Markets (closed)229 / 268
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1049.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 39 History 229 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $44 +$2 +4%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$3
other 28% −$2
world 10% −$1
economics 7% −$1
culture 7% +$4
tech 4% +$7
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 58m
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 58m
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 58m
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 58m
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 58m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 59m
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 59m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 59m
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 59m
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 59m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 59m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 229 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 229 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 3% -9.4%
all 229 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1049.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.62 · official $12.76 · 3500 history records