Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8D 0x8db6…da81 sports 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 684d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,492 (+3%) realized +$5,124 · open −$1,632
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%81W / 122L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$224
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$4,691
other 23% −$3,609
politics 17% +$3,963
world 2% −$1,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -82.7% -84.4% 0% 0% -84.4%
≤30d 1 -82.7% -84.4% 0% 0% -84.4%
≤90d 2 -69.6% -72.5% 0% 0% -68.9%
all 203 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 39% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 39% -4.5%
10% -25.5% 37% -13.6%
15% -32.7% 33% -21.9%
20% -39.3% 28% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$480 vs −$276 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$5,124
Unrealized−$1,632
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses81 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)203 / 205
History coverage684d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 36¢ $1,800 $300 −$1,500 (-83%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 12¢ $175 $43 −$132 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $270 −$224 -83%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $500 −$282 -56%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $2,500 +$129 +5%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $1,800 −$594 -33%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Dec 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Steelers vs. Browns Dec 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Eagles vs. Chargers Dec 09 $500 −$125 -25%
Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff? Dec 08 $964 +$7,331 +760%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Dec 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: LAR (-10.5) Dec 01 $300 +$256 +85%
Spread: Falcons (-3.5) Dec 01 $300 +$226 +75%
Bills vs. Steelers Nov 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-12.5) Nov 30 $410 −$72 -18%
Spread: Jaguars (-6.5) Nov 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Oregon (-6.5) Nov 30 $300 +$235 +78%
Miami vs. Pittsburgh: O/U 49.5 Nov 30 $300 +$192 +64%
Texas A&M vs. Texas Nov 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-7.5) Nov 29 $924 +$604 +65%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Nov 28 $1,255 −$1,131 -90%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $3,000 −$2,227 -74%
Jaguars vs. Cardinals Nov 23 $300 −$100 -34%
Colts vs. Chiefs Nov 23 $2,000 −$1,172 -59%
Steelers vs. Bears Nov 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 41.5 Nov 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Oregon (-9.5) Nov 22 $187 −$187 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Nov 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Nov 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Chargers vs. Jaguars Nov 16 $169 −$169 -100%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Nov 16 $892 −$300 -34%
South Carolina vs. Texas A&M Nov 16 $100 +$809 +809%
Texas vs. Georgia Nov 16 $300 −$150 -50%
Oklahoma vs. Alabama Nov 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Clemson vs. Louisville Nov 15 $300 +$326 +109%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 14 $500 +$409 +82%
Spread: Oregon (-6.5) Nov 10 $300 +$338 +113%
Steelers vs. Chargers Nov 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Nov 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Penguins vs. Devils Nov 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Broncos vs. Texans Nov 08 $300 +$352 +117%
Buccaneers vs. Saints Nov 08 $500 +$202 +40%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Nov 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Colts vs. Steelers Nov 02 $500 −$24 -5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North? Nov 02 $2,000 −$778 -39%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Penguins vs. Jets Nov 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Texas Nov 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $179 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $47 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $270 3h
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $218 60d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $500 63d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $390 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $130 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $200 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $200 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 86d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 36¢ $130 86d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? BUY Yes 45¢ $500 98d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 15¢ $500 172d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY No 77¢ $1,000 172d
No airdrop in 2025? SELL Yes 11¢ $177 173d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 32¢ $500 173d
No airdrop in 2025? SELL Yes 24¢ $507 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? SELL No 76¢ $874 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY No 87¢ $1,000 173d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $500 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.63 · official $341.89 (match) · 429 history records