Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8db3…e1b3 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$283 (+0%) realized +$281 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 118L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$842per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$61
other 36% +$617
sports 14% −$284
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% −$3
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -3.6% -12.8% 16% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 9% -9.3%
10% -21.1% 9% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 7% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,251) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$8 · ×6.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$1,246
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage134d
Avg bet$842
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $697 $700 +$2 (+0%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $546 $546 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,611 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,315 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $273 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 03 $505 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $664 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $2,453 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,443 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,758 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,280 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,854 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,361 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $3,943 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,302 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $547 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $548 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $548 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $542 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $543 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $541 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $543 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $553 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $554 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $697 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,048 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,050 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,250 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,250 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,143 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,145 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 19d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,055 20d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $857 20d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $858 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,063 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,064 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $770 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $771 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,245.79 · official $1,245.79 (match) · 472 history records